Weekly FX Chart Commentary - 10th November 2025

FX markets are steadying after recent volatility, with the dollar easing slightly while sterling and the euro attempt to stabilise near key support levels. The yen, however, remains under pressure as policy divergence persists. This week’s update examines the latest setups across GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY, outlining the technical levels and momentum shifts likely to shape near-term direction.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD has stabilised around 1.3150 after last week’s selloff, finding support near the 1.30 handle. The pair bounced modestly, but remains capped by a downward trendline from the July highs. The RSI has recovered slightly from oversold territory but still signals cautious sentiment, suggesting rallies may remain limited unless 1.3250 is reclaimed.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: Sustained move above 1.3250 could open a rebound toward

  1.35.

• Bearish: Failure to hold above 1.30 may see a retest of 1.2850.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

Sterling’s rebound has been helped by a softer US dollar following mixed US labour data and slightly weaker Treasury yields. However, sentiment towards the pound remains fragile as the UK economy continues to show uneven growth. Attention now turns to next week’s Bank of England meeting, where policymakers are expected to maintain a data-dependent stance while keeping the door open for future cuts.

GBP/USD: JULY ‘24 - PRESENT

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP trades around 0.8790 after briefly testing resistance near 0.8840. The pair remains comfortably within its ascending trend channel, though RSI readings near 61 indicate momentum is beginning to level off. Price action shows mild consolidation ahead of key data from both economies later in the week.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: Break above 0.8840 could extend gains toward 0.89.

• Bearish: Reversal below 0.8740 would expose 0.8650 support.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The euro continues to outperform sterling as softer UK macro data offsets Eurozone headwinds. While ECB officials maintain a cautious tone, the lack of fresh catalysts has kept the pair range-bound. Investors are watching UK inflation expectations and Eurozone PMI readings for clues on whether this consolidation phase will evolve into a breakout.

EUR/GBP: JUNE ‘24 - PRESENT

EUR/USD

EUR/USD trades near 1.1560, holding within a broader descending channel. While short-term momentum has improved, the pair continues to face resistance around 1.17. The RSI remains subdued at 45, implying only tentative buying interest following the recent dollar pullback.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: Break above 1.1610 could target 1.17 next.

• Bearish: Failure to hold 1.1480 could reopen downside toward 1.13.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

A softer dollar has provided some near-term support for the euro, but fundamental pressures persist. Eurozone growth indicators remain mixed, and ECB officials have reaffirmed their “higher for longer” approach to rates, dampening prospects for a sustained rally. Traders are awaiting upcoming US inflation data for direction, which could determine whether the euro builds on its recovery or resumes its decline.

EUR/USD: JUNE ‘24 - PRESENT

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is trading around 154.00, hovering near multi-month highs as the pair tests resistance at 155. The RSI sits at 61, suggesting momentum remains positive though extended. Bollinger Bands indicate continued upward bias, but volatility remains high as markets stay alert for signs of intervention from Japanese authorities.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: Break above 155 could lead to 156 and potentially 160.

• Bearish: Failure to clear 155 may trigger pullback toward 152.50.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The yen’s weakness reflects the stark policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. Recent comments from BoJ officials suggest no imminent policy shift, reinforcing downside pressure on the currency. However, with USD/JPY approaching levels historically sensitive to intervention, traders are cautious of potential verbal pushback or coordinated market action if 155.00 is breached.

USD/JPY: MAY ‘24 - PRESENT

As always, if you’d like to discuss these moves in more detail, or how they could impact your business or personal FX requirements, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

info@k2-fx.com

+44 203 355 4603