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Weekly FX Chart Commentary - 13th October 2025
- jusdenhalabi
- Oct 13
- 3 min read
FX markets are shifting lower this week as renewed dollar strength and softer UK data drive key pairs through important technical levels. In this update, we break down the latest moves in GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY, highlighting the setups and momentum signals that could shape the near-term direction.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD has broken below short-term trend support and is now testing the 1.3330 region. The pair continues to trade within a broader range between 1.33 and 1.37, but recent weakness suggests momentum has shifted in favour of the dollar. The 20-day moving average is trending lower, and the RSI near 40 indicates a modestly bearish bias.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish: A recovery above 1.3450 could open the door back towards 1.3630, though upside remains capped without a shift in BoE tone.
Bearish: Sustained weakness below 1.3330 could trigger a deeper pullback toward 1.32 or even 1.30 if dollar strength persists.
Macro Backdrop to Consider
Sterling came under renewed pressure following softer UK GDP data and dovish commentary from the Bank of England, which reiterated that rate cuts remain on the table heading into year-end. In contrast, stronger US consumer sentiment and resilient economic prints supported the dollar, keeping the policy divergence theme alive. Political uncertainty surrounding the UK’s fiscal outlook has also weighed on sentiment.
GBP/USD: MAY ‘24 - PRESENT
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP has pulled back from the 0.8750 ceiling after multiple failed attempts to break higher. The cross remains confined to a consolidative range, with the 20-day moving average flattening around 0.8680. Price action continues to show lower highs, suggesting waning upside momentum.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish: A clear breakout above 0.8750 would shift focus toward 0.88 and potentially 0.8850.
Bearish: A close below 0.8650 could see pressure building toward 0.8550 and the lower boundary of the recent channel.
Macro Backdrop to Consider
The euro lost some ground this week after mixed Eurozone inflation data and weaker industrial production figures. Meanwhile, UK data showed modest improvement in retail spending, but not enough to change expectations for a dovish BoE stance. As such, the cross remains largely driven by relative policy expectations, with traders cautious ahead of next week’s ECB meeting minutes.
EUR/GBP: MAY ‘24 - PRESENT
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has broken below its rising trendline and the 1.17 handle, signalling a possible trend shift after months of gradual gains. The pair is now hovering around 1.1570, with Bollinger Bands widening - a sign of increased volatility. Momentum has turned negative, with the RSI near 38.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish: Reclaiming 1.1710 would be needed to negate downside bias and re-target 1.1850.
Bearish: A daily close below 1.1570 opens the door to 1.1450 and possibly 1.12 on sustained dollar strength.
Macro Backdrop to Consider
The euro has weakened as softer German PMI data reinforced concerns over slowing Eurozone growth. Meanwhile, the US dollar gained ground following upbeat employment figures and hawkish comments from several Fed officials suggesting interest rates may remain elevated for longer. Divergent growth trajectories between the US and Europe continue to support the dollar in the near term.
EUR/USD: MAY ‘24 - PRESENT
USD/JPY
USD/JPY surged above 150.00, with momentum extending toward 152.00 before mild profit-taking. The move marks a decisive breakout from the summer consolidation pattern, underpinned by strong bullish momentum and widening Bollinger Bands. RSI sits above 62, suggesting near-term overbought conditions but no clear reversal signal yet.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish: A sustained hold above 150.00 could target 153.20, with potential for a retest of 155.00 if momentum persists.
Bearish: A pullback below 149.10 may trigger consolidation toward 147.00 as traders take profits following the breakout.
Macro Backdrop to Consider
The yen weakened sharply after Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party elected its first female leader, who is widely expected to become the country’s next Prime Minister. Her pro-growth and dovish monetary stance reinforced expectations of continued ultra-loose policy under the Bank of Japan. Combined with a firmer US dollar and rising Treasury yields, this pushed USD/JPY to multi-month highs.
USD/JPY: MAY ‘24 - PRESENT
As always, if you’d like to discuss these moves in more detail, or how they could impact your business or personal FX requirements, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.
+44 203 355 4603
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