Weekly FX Chart Commentary - 15th September 2025

Global FX markets remain rangebound as key pairs test familiar levels, with central bank signals and intervention risks keeping traders on edge. In this week’s update, we highlight the technical setups for GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY, outlining the levels that could spark the next breakout.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3550, consolidating just below the 1.36 resistance zone. Recent price action shows repeated rejections at this level, with support holding above 1.34. The pair is trading within a narrowing range, hinting at an impending breakout.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A sustained break above 1.36 could open the way toward 1.37 and potentially 1.39 in extension.

• Bearish: A move below 1.34 would shift focus back to 1.3250, with further weakness targeting the 1.30 area.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

Sterling’s moves remain heavily influenced by UK political headlines and market expectations for the Bank of England’s policy stance. Meanwhile, the US dollar has found intermittent strength from firm Treasury yields and safe haven demand, keeping GBP/USD capped despite relatively constructive UK data.

GBP/USD: MAY ‘24 - PRESENT

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8650, consolidating after multiple failed attempts to break through the 0.87 resistance zone. Price action has stabilised above 0.86, keeping the broader uptrend intact but capped in the near term.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A clean break above 0.87 would open the way to 0.8750 and potentially 0.88.

• Bearish: A move below 0.86 could expose 0.85, with a deeper pullback toward 0.8350 possible if momentum accelerates.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The euro has been supported by expectations that the ECB will maintain a cautious stance amid sticky inflation, while sterling remains influenced by political noise and Bank of England signals. The cross reflects this tug-of-war, with neither currency showing clear dominance for now.

EUR/GBP: MAY ‘24 - PRESENT

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1740, pushing higher within a tightening range as it approaches the key 1.18 resistance zone. Price action remains constructive above 1.16 support, but repeated failures at the top of the range highlight indecision.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A decisive break above 1.18 would clear the path toward 1.1850–1.19.

• Bearish: Failure to hold above 1.16 could drag the pair back to 1.1450, with 1.12 as a deeper downside target.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The euro has gained modest support from stable eurozone data and reduced political noise, while the dollar has been weighed down by softer Treasury yields and signs of a less hawkish Fed. However, divergence in growth prospects and policy remains a limiting factor for sustained upside in the pair.

EUR/USD: MAY ‘24 - PRESENT

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is trading around 147.70, consolidating within a narrowing range as it struggles to break the 150.00 resistance level. Price action has been choppy, with the pair repeatedly failing to sustain upside momentum despite finding support above 146.00.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A sustained break above 150.00 could trigger a move toward 152.00 and beyond.

• Bearish: A drop below 146.00 would expose 144.00, with 142.00 trendline support as the next target.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The yen remains weighed down by the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose stance, even as speculation builds that policymakers may move toward gradual adjustments later this year. Meanwhile, the dollar has been supported by firm US data and yields but capped by shifting Fed expectations. Intervention risk continues to loom over the pair, limiting upside.

USD/JPY: MAY ‘24 - PRESENT

As always, if you’d like to discuss these moves in more detail, or how they could impact your business or personal FX requirements, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

info@k2-fx.com

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