Weekly FX Chart Commentary - 17th November 2025

FX markets are stabilising as the dollar softens ahead of key US inflation data, allowing sterling and the euro to recover modestly while the yen remains under pressure near multi-month highs. This week’s update reviews the latest technical setups across GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY, highlighting the momentum shifts and key levels likely to guide near-term direction.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD has edged up to around 1.3170, rebounding modestly after finding solid support near 1.30. The pair remains below the descending resistance line from the July highs but is showing tentative signs of recovery. The RSI has ticked up to 43, suggesting that short-term downside momentum is easing.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: Break above 1.3200 could open the door toward 1.3420.

• Bearish: Failure to hold 1.3000 risks renewed selling toward 1.2850.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

Sterling’s modest bounce follows a broadly softer US dollar, with traders positioning ahead of key US inflation data. UK economic sentiment remains cautious, though improved risk appetite and firmer gilt yields have lent the pound some near-term support. The Bank of England continues to strike a balanced tone, with policymakers reiterating that rate cuts will remain data dependent.

GBP/USD: JULY ‘24 - PRESENT

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP trades around 0.8820, retreating slightly from recent highs near 0.8870. The pair remains in an uptrend supported by higher lows since August, though short-term momentum has eased. The RSI at 62 indicates the euro is still relatively strong but nearing overbought levels.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: Sustained close above 0.8870 could target 0.89 next.

• Bearish: Break below 0.8770 may trigger a move toward 0.8670.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The euro has outperformed amid a softer pound and more stable Eurozone data. However, with the ECB maintaining a cautious tone and UK inflation data due next week, traders may prefer to take profits near current levels. The cross remains supported by expectations that the BoE may be closer to cutting rates than the ECB.

EUR/GBP: JULY ‘24 - PRESENT

EUR/USD

EUR/USD remains range-bound near 1.1620, with momentum still constrained within a broad descending channel. The RSI sits just above 52, indicating a modest bullish bias but limited conviction. The pair continues to oscillate between 1.15 and 1.17 as traders await fresh macro catalysts.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: Break above 1.1680 could drive gains toward 1.1780.

• Bearish: Drop below 1.1480 risks further downside to 1.13.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The euro has found modest support from a weaker dollar, with markets expecting that the next move from the Federal Reserve will be a cut in December or early 2026. Eurozone inflation remains subdued, reinforcing expectations of steady ECB policy for now. In the short term, US CPI data and comments from Fed officials will likely dictate direction.

EUR/USD: JUNE ‘24 - PRESENT

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is trading around 154.50, approaching a key resistance band near 155. Momentum remains firmly bullish, supported by the steep upward channel that has held since July. The RSI at 62 reflects continued buying pressure, though the pair is nearing overbought territory.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: Break above 155 could see momentum extend toward 156.

• Bearish: Failure to clear 155 may spark a retracement toward 153.30.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The yen remains under pressure amid yield differentials and ongoing BoJ dovishness. While intervention talk has quietened, Japanese officials are likely monitoring the 155 level closely. Meanwhile, US yields remain elevated, reinforcing dollar strength. Any hint of policy tightening from the BoJ or softening US inflation could prompt a near-term pullback.

USD/JPY: JULY ‘24 - PRESENT

As always, if you’d like to discuss these moves in more detail, or how they could impact your business or personal FX requirements, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

info@k2-fx.com

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