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Weekly FX Chart Commentary - 22nd September 2025
- jusdenhalabi
- Sep 22
- 3 min read
FX markets remain in consolidation mode as traders balance central bank expectations, technical resistance levels, and the risk of intervention in key currency pairs. This week’s update dives into GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY, outlining the macro backdrop and the technical levels that could shape the next big move.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD briefly tested above 1.37 before being rejected, slipping back toward 1.3520. The move coincided with selling pressure at the upper Bollinger Band, while the RSI has eased to around 46, suggesting momentum has turned cautious.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish: A recovery above 1.3600 would open the door to retesting 1.3700, with scope for a push toward 1.38 if dollar weakness accelerates.
Bearish: A sustained move below 1.3450 could trigger a deeper correction toward 1.3340, with trendline support near 1.3250 in view.
Macro Backdrop to Consider
Sterling has been supported by stronger UK wage data and persistent inflationary pressures, keeping the Bank of England’s tightening bias intact. However, the US dollar remains underpinned by safe-haven demand and higher Treasury yields.
GBP/USD: APR ‘24 - PRESENT
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP has pushed back toward the 0.87 resistance level, with the pair trading around 0.8710. Price action is pressing against the upper Bollinger Band, while RSI at ~60 reflects improving bullish momentum but not yet overbought conditions.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish: A decisive close above 0.8700 could clear the path to retest 0.8750, with further upside potential if euro strength persists.
Bearish: A rejection from 0.87 and a move back below 0.8660 would open the door toward 0.8550, with Bollinger mid-band support near 0.8615 a key interim level.
Macro Backdrop to Consider
The euro has been supported by firmer Eurozone industrial production and a slight recovery in sentiment, while the Bank of England faces a challenging balancing act between sticky inflation and weaker UK growth. Diverging policy signals between the ECB and BoE are keeping the cross buoyant near recent highs.
EUR/GBP: APR ‘24 - PRESENT
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is trading around 1.1740 after failing to sustain momentum above the 1.1840 resistance area. Price has slipped back toward the mid-Bollinger Band, while RSI at ~52 indicates neutral momentum following the rejection.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish: A daily close back above 1.1840 would signal a breakout attempt, with 1.1900 the next upside target.
Bearish: Sustained weakness below 1.1600 could trigger a deeper correction toward 1.1500, with Bollinger lower band offering interim support.
Macro Backdrop to Consider
The euro is under mild pressure as softer German data dampened optimism, while the dollar has found some renewed support on firm US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment. Investors remain focused on ECB-USD policy divergence, particularly the outlook for rate cuts into year-end.
EUR/USD: APR ‘24 - PRESENT
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is trading around 148.20, approaching the 150.00 resistance zone after bouncing from 146.00 support. The pair remains within a broad consolidation range, with Bollinger Bands tightening and RSI at ~55 suggesting building momentum.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish: A break and close above 150.00 could trigger a move toward 152.00, with momentum indicators supportive of renewed gains.
Bearish: Failure to clear 150.00 followed by a drop under 146.00 would expose 144.00, with trendline support near 142.00 in focus.
Macro Backdrop to Consider
The dollar continues to benefit from resilient US data and firm Treasury yields, while the yen struggles under the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose stance. However, recent commentary from Prime Minister Kishida has reinforced speculation that authorities remain wary of excessive yen weakness, raising the risk of intervention if upside pressures accelerate.
USD/JPY: APR ‘24 - PRESENT
As always, if you’d like to discuss these moves in more detail, or how they could impact your business or personal FX requirements, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.
+44 203 355 4603
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