Weekly FX Chart Commentary - 24th November 2025

FX markets remain under pressure as sterling and the euro struggle to gain momentum while the dollar stays supported by firm US data and cautious global sentiment. GBP/USD is holding just above 1.30, EUR/GBP rotates below heavy resistance, EUR/USD remains soft around 1.15, and USD/JPY pushes toward multi-year highs near 157. This week’s update highlights the key technical levels, momentum signals, and macro drivers shaping near-term direction across the major pairs.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD continues to trade under pressure following the clean break below the long-running rising trendline and the 1.33 handle. Price has stabilised slightly above 1.30, but remains capped by the descending trendline from the July highs. The RSI is subdued around the low 40s, suggesting weak momentum but not yet oversold.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A break above 1.3145 would open the way toward 1.3288 and then the descending channel top near 1.34.

• Bearish: Failure to hold 1.3000 risks a move toward 1.27, with 1.24 the next major level.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The pair remains weighed down by softer UK data, expectations of earlier BoE cuts compared with the Fed, and lingering global risk-off sentiment. A stabilisation in US yields helped prevent further downside, but conviction remains low with markets favouring the dollar in the near term.

GBP/USD: JULY ‘24 - PRESENT

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP has pulled back after testing the heavy 0.8850 resistance area and the dotted long-term rising resistance line. Price is now rotating around 0.8790, above the 20-day average. RSI sits around 52, still constructive but off recent highs.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A break above 0.8850/0.8870 opens up a run into 0.89+.

• Bearish: A close below 0.8750 exposes 0.8680 and the broader trendline support.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The pair reflects broad GBP softness mixed with euro consolidation. Markets remain uncertain about the ECB’s rate path, but the euro retains a mild defensive bias while UK data continues to lag.

EUR/GBP: JULY ‘24 - PRESENT

EUR/USD

EUR/USD remains under pressure after breaking below the ascending trendline from early 2025. Price is consolidating around 1.15 with repeated rejections at 1.1569. Momentum remains weak, with the RSI around 39.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A sustained move above 1.1570 targets 1.1660, followed by 1.17+.

• Bearish: A drop below 1.1490 opens room toward 1.13, then 1.1050.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The dollar remains bid as US data continues to outperform relative to the eurozone, and expectations of ECB easing in 2026 weigh on the single currency. Risk sentiment remains choppy, keeping EUR/USD contained.

EUR/USD: JULY ‘24 - PRESENT

USD/JPY

USD/JPY has surged to retest the 157 region, approaching the long-term dotted ascending resistance line. Momentum remains strong, with the RSI above 65 but not yet overbought. The trend is clearly upward, but this zone has historically triggered pullbacks.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A clean break above 157.20 would open 158 and potentially the psychological 160 level.

• Bearish: Turning lower from current resistance would bring 154.40 and then 152.50 back into view.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The yen remains structurally weak as the BoJ maintains ultra-loose conditions despite speculation about future tightening. The market continues to trade the interest-rate differential theme, favouring USD strength.

USD/JPY: JULY ‘24 - PRESENT

As always, if you’d like to discuss these moves in more detail, or how they could impact your business or personal FX requirements, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

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