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Weekly FX Chart Commentary - 6th October 2025
- jusdenhalabi
- Oct 6
- 3 min read
FX markets are navigating political developments and key technical levels this week, with GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY showing early signs of directional tension. In this update, we highlight the critical support and resistance points, potential breakout scenarios, and the technical cues that could guide the next moves.
GBP/USD
Cable continues to oscillate within its medium-term range between 1.34 and 1.37, with the latest bounce from 1.34 suggesting near-term resilience. However, repeated failures near 1.36–1.37 keep the pair capped, and the RSI remains subdued around the mid-40s. The broader picture still favours consolidation until a clear break emerges.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish: Holding above 1.3450 could prompt another attempt at 1.36 1.37; a breakout above 1.37 opens 1.39.
Bearish: A daily close below 1.3340 would expose 1.30, the next major support from the spring lows.
Macro Backdrop to Consider
The Pound weakened modestly following dovish commentary from the Bank of England, with rate-cut expectations for Q1 2026 firming. US data remained robust, reinforcing the Fed’s “higher for longer” narrative, which continues to support the Dollar’s yield advantage.
GBP/USD: MAY ‘24 - PRESENT
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP climbed back to retest key resistance at 0.8750 after holding 0.8650 support. The pair remains in a gradual uptrend but momentum has slowed as RSI approaches overbought territory.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish: Sustained move above 0.8750 could extend toward 0.88 and possibly 0.8850.
Bearish: Failure to clear resistance could see retracement toward 0.8650/0.86 support zone.
Macro Backdrop to Consider
The Euro benefitted early in the week from improving German business sentiment and steady Eurozone inflation data, while the Pound lagged amid dovish BoE expectations. However, UK fiscal announcements later in the week helped Sterling stabilise.
EUR/GBP: MAY ‘24 - PRESENT
EUR/USD
EUR/USD remains range-bound below 1.18 resistance as fading momentum and softer Euro data capped gains. The pair has found interim support around 1.17, but repeated failures near the 1.18 ceiling risk a downside drift.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish: Holding above 1.17 could maintain the gradual uptrend channel; a close above 1.1845 opens 1.19–1.20.
Bearish: A breakdown below 1.1615 would shift the bias lower toward 1.13.
Macro Backdrop to Consider
Stronger US growth figures and hawkish Fed comments contrasted with cautious ECB guidance, as Lagarde reiterated that rate cuts remain possible in early 2026. The divergence keeps the Dollar supported while Euro upside remains constrained.
EUR/USD: MAY ‘24 - PRESENT
USD/JPY
USD/JPY broke decisively above 150.00 this week after Japan appointed its first female Prime Minister. Markets interpreted her comments on supporting stability and the Bank of Japan’s stance as a sign of ongoing ultra-loose policy. RSI above 60 confirms bullish momentum but suggests the pair is edging toward overbought territory.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish: Sustained closes above 150 could extend the rally toward 152, with 155 as a stretch target.
Bearish: A failure back below 147.90 would suggest a short-term top, exposing 146.00 and possibly 144.50.
Macro Backdrop to Consider
The Yen weakened sharply as investors priced out the risk of near-term policy tightening under the new leadership. Rising US yields and a stronger dollar added to the move, though potential verbal intervention from Japanese officials remains a near-term risk.
USD/JPY: MAY ‘24 - PRESENT
As always, if you’d like to discuss these moves in more detail, or how they could impact your business or personal FX requirements, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.
+44 203 355 4603
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