.png)
Weekly FX Technical Analysis - 14th September 2026
This week’s FX charts show a market being driven by central bank risk, higher oil prices and renewed volatility in the yen. GBP/USD has slipped back towards 1.3500 after failing to hold above 1.3600, while EUR/GBP remains caught below the 0.8600 to 0.8625 resistance area. EUR/USD has also pulled back from 1.1700 as Fed hike expectations support the dollar, and USD/JPY continues to show the most dramatic shift, with yen strength keeping the pair under pressure near 154.00.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is trading around 1.3495 after slipping back from the 1.3600 to 1.3650 resistance area. The pair remains above the broader 1.3450 support zone, but momentum has faded and price action now looks more balanced than it did during the recent recovery. RSI is close to neutral, suggesting neither side has full control, although failure to regain 1.3550 would keep the pair vulnerable to another move lower.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish: If GBP/USD can hold above 1.3450 and reclaim 1.3550, the next upside test sits around 1.3600 to 1.3650. A break above that zone would bring 1.3800 back into focus.
Bearish: If the pair breaks below 1.3450, downside pressure could build towards 1.3400 and then 1.3275. A deeper break would put the wider 1.3150 to 1.3200 support region back in play.
Macro Backdrop to Consider
Sterling faces a busy week, with the Bank of England expected to hold rates at 3.75 percent, although the vote may again be split. July GDP was stronger than expected, but high oil prices, UK fiscal pressure and gilt sensitivity continue to complicate the picture ahead of the autumn budget. The dollar side also matters, with markets pricing a high probability of a Fed hike after stronger US inflation data.
House View
Our house view is neutral to mildly negative while GBP/USD remains below 1.3550. The pair is still holding above key support, but the recent failure near 1.3650 suggests sterling needs a stronger catalyst before the recovery can regain momentum.
GBP/USD: SEPTEMBER ‘25 - PRESENT
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8564 after failing to sustain its move above 0.8600. The pair has recovered well from the July lows, but it remains below the former breakdown area and has not yet confirmed a wider bullish reversal. RSI has slipped back below neutral, suggesting momentum has softened, with 0.8525 to 0.8500 now the key support area to defend.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish: If EUR/GBP can reclaim 0.8600 and then 0.8625, the next upside levels sit around 0.8650 and 0.8700. A move through those areas would suggest the recent recovery has more substance.
Bearish: If the pair fails to hold above 0.8525, price could rotate back towards 0.8500 and then 0.8450. A break below 0.8450 would reassert the broader downtrend.
Macro Backdrop to Consider
EUR/GBP remains sensitive to the contrast between ECB and BoE expectations. The ECB has recently turned more hawkish, with policymakers pointing to persistent inflation risks from higher energy prices, while the BoE is still expected to hold this week despite renewed inflation pressure. That leaves the cross caught between a firmer euro rate backdrop and sterling support from stronger UK growth data.
House View
Our house view is neutral while EUR/GBP trades between 0.8525 and 0.8625. A break above 0.8625 would improve the outlook, but until then the recovery still looks tentative rather than fully established.
EUR/GBP: SEPTEMBER ‘25 - PRESENT
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is trading around 1.1556 after pulling back from the 1.1700 resistance area. The pair remains above the 1.1500 to 1.1525 support zone, but the recent rejection has weakened short term momentum. RSI has moved below neutral, suggesting the pair needs to stabilise quickly if the recovery from the July lows is to remain intact.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish: If EUR/USD can hold above 1.1500 and move back above 1.1625, the next upside test sits around 1.1700. A clean break above 1.1700 would bring 1.1800 back into focus.
Bearish: If the pair breaks below 1.1500, downside pressure could return towards 1.1415 and then 1.1350. A move below that region would weaken the recovery and shift focus back towards 1.1200.
Macro Backdrop to Consider
EUR/USD is being pulled between a more hawkish ECB and a stronger dollar backdrop. ECB officials are warning that energy driven inflation could justify further tightening, but the dollar is being supported by higher oil prices, stronger US inflation and rising expectations of a Fed hike this week. This keeps the pair vulnerable unless it can reclaim the 1.1625 to 1.1700 region.
House View
Our house view is neutral to mildly negative while EUR/USD remains below 1.1625. The 1.1500 area remains important support, but the latest pullback suggests the euro needs fresh momentum before a move back towards 1.1700 becomes likely.
EUR/USD: SEPTEMBER ‘25 - PRESENT
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is trading around 154.28 after another sharp move lower from the 160.00 area. The pair has broken back below several important short term levels and remains under pressure near the lower end of its recent range. RSI is weak and close to oversold territory, which suggests downside momentum remains dominant, although the risk of a short term rebound is also elevated if support around 152.00 to 153.00 holds.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish:If USD/JPY can hold above 152.00 to 153.00 and reclaim 156.00, the pair could attempt a recovery towards 157.50 and then 158.50. A move above 160.00 would be needed to repair the wider technical damage.
Bearish: If the pair breaks below 152.00, the next downside target sits around 150.00. A move below 150.00 would represent a much deeper correction and could accelerate yen strength further.
Macro Backdrop to Consider
The yen remains the most volatile major currency in this week’s report. Markets are focused on the Bank of Japan decision, with yen strength supported by expectations of tighter policy and the unwinding of carry trades. Reuters has highlighted that the yen’s surge has disrupted carry trade positioning, while investors are also watching whether the BOJ delivers a sufficiently hawkish message to justify the recent move.
House View
Our house view is bearish while USD/JPY remains below 158.50. The move is now stretched, so a short term bounce would not be surprising, but the technical structure remains negative unless the pair can reclaim 156.00 and then 158.50.
USD/JPY: SEPTEMBER ‘25 - PRESENT
As always, if you’d like to discuss these moves in more detail, or how they could impact your business or personal requirements, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.
+44 203 355 4603
Disclaimer: The information in this publication is provided for general information purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice, nor should it be relied upon as such. Readers should consider their own circumstances and seek independent advice where appropriate.
.png)
Comments