Weekly FX Technical Analysis - 30th March 2026

FX markets continue to trade at key technical levels as we head into the final week of March.

GBP/USD remains under pressure near 1.32, while EUR/USD is testing critical support around 1.15. EUR/GBP continues to hold within its established range, sitting just above key support, and USD/JPY is once again probing the 160 resistance level.

This week’s charts highlight the key inflection points that could define directional moves into April.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD continues to trade within a broad consolidation range, currently holding just above the 1.3200–1.3250 support region after failing to regain momentum above the 1.35 handle. The pair remains capped by descending trendline resistance, with lower highs continuing to define the recent structure.

Price action is sitting near the lower end of the range, with Bollinger Bands slightly widening, suggesting a potential pickup in volatility. RSI is hovering around the low-40s, indicating soft bearish momentum but not yet oversold conditions.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A move back above 1.3350–1.3425 would suggest a recovery in momentum and open a move toward 1.3550, followed by 1.3700.

• Bearish: A break below 1.3200 would expose 1.3000, with scope toward 1.2850 if downside momentum accelerates.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

Sterling remains sensitive to UK growth expectations and Bank of England policy signals, while USD direction continues to be driven by rate expectations.

GBP/USD: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP remains range-bound but is now leaning toward the lower end of its multi-month range, currently trading around 0.8670. The pair continues to respect the broader 0.8600–0.8800 structure, with repeated failures near the upper resistance zone.

Price is attempting to stabilise above key support near 0.8600, which has held on multiple occasions. Bollinger Bands are relatively neutral, while RSI sits near the mid-40s, suggesting limited directional conviction.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A move back above 0.8700–0.8750 would shift momentum higher and reopen a move toward 0.8850.

• Bearish: A break below 0.8600 would signal a downside range break and expose 0.8500.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

EUR/GBP continues to be driven by relative central bank expectations between the ECB and BoE, with no clear divergence yet emerging.

EUR/GBP: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

EUR/USD

EUR/USD remains under pressure following its rejection from the 1.20 resistance zone, with price now trading around 1.1500 and consolidating near key support.

The pair has broken below the 1.1600 region and is now testing the lower boundary of its broader range. Bollinger Bands remain moderately expanded following the recent move lower, indicating continued volatility.

RSI is sitting in the high-30s to low-40s, reflecting bearish momentum conditions, though not yet extreme.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A recovery above 1.1550–1.1675 would neutralise downside pressure and open a move back toward 1.1800–1.1900.

• Bearish: A break below 1.1500 would confirm further downside, exposing 1.1400, followed by 1.1200.

  
  

Macro Backdrop to Consider

EUR/USD remains highly sensitive to Fed vs ECB policy divergence, with US data continuing to dominate direction.

EUR/USD: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

USD/JPY

USD/JPY continues to trade near the upper end of its long-term range, currently around 160.00, with the broader uptrend remaining intact. Price action is once again testing the key 160 resistance zone, which has historically capped upside moves.

Momentum remains firm, with higher lows continuing to support the structure. Bollinger Bands remain elevated, indicating sustained directional strength, while RSI is holding above 60, reinforcing bullish momentum.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A sustained break above 160.50 would likely trigger further upside toward 162.00–163.00.

• Bearish: A move back below 158.00 would signal a loss of momentum and expose 155.00, followed by 152.50.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

Yield differentials remain the dominant driver, with USD/JPY highly sensitive to US Treasury yields and any potential shifts from the Bank of Japan.

USD/JPY: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

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As always, if you’d like to discuss these moves in more detail, or how they could impact your business or personal requirements, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

info@k2-fx.com

+44 203 355 4603

Disclaimer: The information in this publication is provided for general information purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice, nor should it be relied upon as such. Readers should consider their own circumstances and seek independent advice where appropriate.