Weekly FX Technical Analysis - 3rd March 2026

March begins with momentum shifts across the majors.

GBP/USD has broken lower from its February spike and is now testing trend support near 1.33. EUR/USD is leaning on the key 1.16 pivot after rejecting the 1.19–1.20 ceiling. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP is pushing higher toward resistance, and USD/JPY is once again challenging the upper 158 region.

This week’s charts are about structural levels. Several pairs sit at decision points that could define the next multi-week move.

Below, we outline the key levels, potential scenarios, and the macro themes most likely to drive direction.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD has come under renewed pressure following the failed break above the 1.38 region, with spot now trading near 1.3316. The rejection from the upper resistance band has shifted near-term momentum decisively lower, and price is now testing the broader support structure that underpinned the move from late November. The pair is sitting just above the rising medium-term trend support, but momentum indicators (RSI near the low-30s) suggest downside pressure remains dominant for now.

The key near-term level is the 1.3300–1.3350 zone. A sustained hold here would suggest the broader recovery structure remains intact. However, a clean break lower would confirm that the February spike was a bull trap and open deeper retracement risk.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A recovery back above 1.3540 would stabilise momentum and bring 1.3725–1.3780 back into focus. A reclaim of the 1.38 handle would reassert the broader uptrend.

• Bearish: A break below 1.3300 exposes 1.3200, with scope toward 1.3000–1.3050 if selling accelerates.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

Sterling remains highly sensitive to shifts in US rate expectations and global risk appetite. With markets continuing to reassess the pace of 2026 Fed easing, GBP/USD direction is likely to track US yield movements in the near term, while UK growth and inflation surprises remain secondary drivers.

GBP/USD: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP has firmed notably and is now trading near 0.8737, pushing back toward the upper boundary of its recent consolidation range. The pair has successfully defended the 0.8600 region multiple times in recent months and is now attempting to challenge the descending resistance structure that has capped rallies since late 2025.

Momentum has improved, with RSI back in the mid-50s, suggesting a more balanced tone compared to earlier weakness. The immediate focus is whether price can sustain a break above the 0.8750 region.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A sustained break above 0.8750–0.8770 would open the path toward 0.8850, the next major resistance zone.

• Bearish: Failure at current resistance and a move back below 0.8670 would reintroduce downside pressure toward 0.8600, with a break there exposing 0.8500.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

Relative rate expectations between the BoE and ECB remain central. Any repricing of UK growth risks or Eurozone inflation persistence could quickly shift the balance. Risk sentiment also tends to amplify EUR/GBP swings when positioning becomes one-sided.

EUR/GBP: FEBRUARY ‘25 - PRESENT

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has rotated lower and is currently trading near 1.1634, having rejected the upper 1.19–1.20 resistance zone decisively. The broader structure remains range-bound, but the failure to hold above 1.18 has shifted short-term bias to the downside.

Price is now approaching the lower half of the established range. The key pivot sits around 1.1600. A decisive break below this region would mark a structural deterioration and suggest the pair is transitioning from consolidation into a deeper corrective phase.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A recovery back above 1.1800 would neutralise immediate downside pressure and re-open the 1.19–1.20 resistance band.

• Bearish: A sustained break below 1.1600 exposes 1.1500, followed by 1.1400–1.1450 as the next key support cluster.

  
  

Macro Backdrop to Consider

EUR/USD remains primarily driven by relative Fed vs ECB policy expectations. As markets continue to reprice 2026 easing trajectories, US data surprises and yield volatility are likely to dictate direction. The 1.16 level is technically and psychologically important in this context.

EUR/USD: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

USD/JPY

USD/JPY remains elevated and is currently trading near 157.45, holding above the broader rising trend structure despite recent volatility. The pair has rebounded sharply from the February pullback and is once again challenging the upper resistance band near 158.30.

Momentum has improved (RSI back above 60), indicating renewed upside bias. However, price remains within a technically significant resistance region that has previously capped advances.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A sustained break above 158.30 would open the path toward 160.00+, with the broader uptrend resuming.

• Bearish: A move back below 155.20–154.70 would suggest exhaustion and expose 152.20, with deeper retracement risk if yields soften.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

USD/JPY continues to track US-Japan yield differentials closely. Any renewed volatility in US rates or policy signals from the BoJ could trigger sharp repositioning. With positioning often extended in this pair, moves can be amplified once key technical levels give way.

USD/JPY: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

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As always, if you’d like to discuss these moves in more detail, or how they could impact your business or personal requirements, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

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Disclaimer: The information in this publication is provided for general information purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice, nor should it be relied upon as such. Readers should consider their own circumstances and seek independent advice where appropriate.