Weekly FX Technical Analysis - 8th June 2026

The US dollar has regained momentum as markets reassess expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

GBP/USD has fallen back toward key support, EUR/USD has moved sharply lower from resistance, while USD/JPY is once again testing the important 160 level where intervention concerns return.

With central bank policy expectations continuing to shift, upcoming inflation and employment data remain crucial for FX direction.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is trading around 1.3320, with sterling coming under renewed pressure after failing to sustain momentum above the 1.3500 resistance region. The pair has moved back toward the lower end of its recent range, with short term momentum weakening and the market now testing an important support area.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A recovery back above 1.3500 would improve sentiment and suggest buyers are returning, potentially opening another move toward 1.3600/1.3650.

• Bearish: A sustained move below 1.3300 would confirm a loss of momentum and could expose further downside toward the wider support region around 1.3150/1.3200.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

Sterling has softened as markets continue to weigh slowing UK economic momentum against still elevated inflation pressures. Expectations remain that the Bank of England will continue gradually easing policy, although policymakers remain cautious due to persistent wage and services inflation. Meanwhile, the US dollar has regained support as investors reassess the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with resilient economic data reducing expectations for aggressive easing. Markets remain highly sensitive to upcoming inflation and labour market releases.

House View

Neutral GBP/USD, with the pair requiring a move back above 1.3500 to restore bullish momentum.

GBP/USD: JUNE ‘25 - PRESENT

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8640, continuing to hold within its well established sideways trading pattern. The pair remains supported around the 0.8600 area, while repeated attempts to break higher have struggled around the 0.8700/0.8750 resistance zone.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A break above 0.8750 would signal improving euro strength and could open a move toward the previous highs around 0.8850.

• Bearish: A decisive move below 0.8600 would weaken the current range structure and increase the probability of a move toward 0.8500.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

EUR/GBP remains heavily influenced by relative central bank expectations, with both the ECB and Bank of England balancing weaker growth conditions against inflation risks. Markets are assessing whether either central bank will move more aggressively with rate cuts in the months ahead. The pair remains rangebound as neither currency has developed a clear fundamental advantage, with incoming inflation and growth data likely to determine the next directional move.

House View

Neutral EUR/GBP, with the pair continuing to favour range trading until either 0.8600 support or 0.8750 resistance breaks.

EUR/GBP: JUNE ‘25 - PRESENT

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1510, after a sharp move lower from the recent 1.1800 resistance region. The pair has now returned toward an important support zone, with sellers gaining momentum as the US dollar strengthens.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: Holding above 1.1500 could allow EUR/USD to stabilise and attempt another move back toward 1.1700/1.1800 resistance.

• Bearish: A confirmed break below 1.1500 would weaken the technical outlook and expose further downside toward 1.1400.

  
  

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The euro has faced pressure as markets price further ECB easing, with policymakers continuing to highlight downside risks to growth. In contrast, the US dollar has benefited from more cautious expectations around Federal Reserve cuts, supported by resilient data and elevated yields. Geopolitical uncertainty and global risk sentiment remain important drivers, with periods of uncertainty continuing to support demand for the dollar as a safe haven.

House View

Neutral to slightly bearish EUR/USD, with the 1.1500 support region now the key level to watch.

EUR/USD: JUNE ‘25 - PRESENT

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is trading around 160.00, once again testing a major psychological level and an area that has historically attracted attention from Japanese authorities. The broader uptrend remains intact, although the pair is now approaching levels where volatility risks increase.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A sustained break above 160.00 could allow further upside momentum toward 162.00.

• Bearish: Failure to hold above current levels could trigger profit taking and a move back toward 158.00, with further support around 156.00.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The yen remains under pressure as the interest rate differential between Japan and the US continues to favour the dollar. Although the Bank of Japan has taken steps toward policy normalisation, markets remain cautious on how quickly rates can rise. With USD/JPY back around 160, intervention risks are increasingly important, as Japanese officials continue monitoring excessive currency weakness.

House View

Cautiously bullish USD/JPY, although intervention risks increase significantly around the 160 level.

USD/JPY: JUNE ‘25 - PRESENT

As always, if you’d like to discuss these moves in more detail, or how they could impact your business or personal requirements, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

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Disclaimer: The information in this publication is provided for general information purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice, nor should it be relied upon as such. Readers should consider their own circumstances and seek independent advice where appropriate.