Weekly FX Technical Analysis - 9th March 2026

FX markets are entering March with several major pairs testing important technical levels. GBP/USD is consolidating near key support after its failed breakout above 1.38, while EUR/USD continues to slide toward the lower end of its broader range. EUR/GBP remains trapped within its multi-month consolidation band, and USD/JPY is once again pressing against major resistance near the 159 area.

In this week’s update, we highlight the critical support and resistance levels shaping price action and outline the potential scenarios that could drive the next directional move across the major currency pairs.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD remains under pressure after failing to sustain the earlier breakout toward the 1.38 region, with spot now trading around 1.3347. The pair has slipped back below the former range highs near 1.3450 and is now testing the broader support structure that has held since late 2025. Momentum remains soft, with RSI drifting toward the high-30s, suggesting bearish pressure is still present.

The key near-term pivot remains the 1.3300–1.3350 zone. A sustained hold above this area would suggest the broader uptrend structure remains intact despite the recent pullback. However, a clean break below would expose deeper support levels and signal that the February rally has fully unwound.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A recovery back above 1.3495–1.3540 would stabilise the outlook and reopen a move toward 1.3690, with 1.3780+ the next major resistance.

• Bearish: A break below 1.3300 would expose 1.3200, followed by 1.3050–1.3000 if selling momentum accelerates.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

Sterling continues to track US rate expectations closely. With markets still repricing the pace of Fed easing through 2026, shifts in US yields and global risk sentiment remain the dominant driver of GBP/USD direction.

GBP/USD: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP has eased slightly after testing the upper end of its recent range, with spot currently trading around 0.8662. The cross remains within the broader 0.8600–0.8850 consolidation band that has defined price action for several months.

The recent rejection near 0.8760–0.8800 suggests that resistance remains intact for now, while the 0.8600 region continues to provide structural support. Momentum indicators remain relatively neutral, indicating the pair is still largely range-bound.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A sustained move back above 0.8715–0.8760 would shift momentum higher and reopen a test of 0.8850.

• Bearish: A break below 0.8600 would mark a structural downside break and expose 0.8500 as the next major support.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

Relative interest rate expectations between the Bank of England and the ECB remain the primary driver for EUR/GBP. Shifts in growth expectations between the UK and Eurozone can quickly tilt the balance within this well-defined range.

EUR/GBP: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has continued to weaken following its rejection from the 1.20 resistance zone, with spot now trading near 1.1561. The pair has broken below the mid-range support near 1.1700 and is now testing the lower portion of the broader consolidation structure.

Momentum indicators have deteriorated notably, with RSI moving into oversold territory, suggesting downside pressure remains dominant in the near term. The 1.1500–1.1550 region now becomes the key level to watch.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A recovery back above 1.1760–1.1800 would neutralise the immediate bearish bias and reopen the path toward 1.1960 resistance.

• Bearish: A sustained break below 1.1500 would confirm a deeper corrective move, exposing 1.1400–1.1450 as the next support cluster.

  
  

Macro Backdrop to Consider

EUR/USD remains closely tied to shifts in Fed versus ECB rate expectations. Any repricing of US growth and inflation data will likely continue to drive short-term volatility in the pair.

EUR/USD: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

USD/JPY

USD/JPY remains elevated and is once again challenging the upper resistance band near 158.50–159.00, with spot currently trading around 158.45. The pair has recovered strongly from the February pullback and continues to trade within the broader ascending trend structure.

Momentum has improved materially, with RSI back above 60, indicating renewed bullish pressure. However, the pair is approaching a major resistance zone that has historically triggered volatility.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A sustained break above 158.99 would likely trigger another leg higher toward 160.00+.

• Bearish: A move back below 155.50 would suggest the rally is losing momentum and expose 152.00 as the next key support.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

USD/JPY remains highly sensitive to US-Japan yield differentials and shifts in global risk sentiment. Any surprise signals from the Bank of Japan or sharp moves in US Treasury yields could quickly alter the trajectory.

USD/JPY: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

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As always, if you’d like to discuss these moves in more detail, or how they could impact your business or personal requirements, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

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Disclaimer: The information in this publication is provided for general information purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice, nor should it be relied upon as such. Readers should consider their own circumstances and seek independent advice where appropriate.