Weekly FX Technical Analysis - 9th November 2026

Currency markets enter another important week, with Tuesday's US inflation figures and Thursday's UK GDP release likely to influence the direction of major currency pairs. Sterling has maintained its recovery against the dollar following the Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates to 4%, although stronger US employment figures have reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening.

Meanwhile, the euro continues to struggle, with EUR/GBP falling towards 0.8340 amid widening monetary policy divergence and persistent French fiscal concerns. EUR/USD remains under pressure around 1.1200, while USD/JPY is consolidating near 158.00 as markets assess the outlook for Japanese interest rates. With inflation, central bank policy and geopolitical uncertainty continuing to drive market sentiment, this week's economic releases could prove important in determining whether established trends persist or begin to reverse.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is trading around 1.3411, maintaining its recovery from October lows near 1.3170 but encountering resistance around the 1.3430 to 1.3500 region. The pair remains above its 20 day moving average near 1.3360, while RSI around 55 indicates moderately positive momentum. However, the broader descending resistance structure remains intact, suggesting that further gains may prove difficult without a sustained breakout above 1.3500.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: If GBP/USD maintains support above 1.3360 and breaks decisively through 1.3490 to 1.3500, the pair could extend its recovery towards 1.3630. A sustained move above this resistance would strengthen the case for a broader bullish reversal, potentially opening the way towards 1.3700.
• Bearish: Failure to overcome 1.3490 could trigger renewed selling towards 1.3360, followed by 1.3300. A decisive break below this region would expose 1.3230 and potentially the significant support zone around 1.3170.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% on 5 November, responding to persistent energy driven inflationary pressures. Governor Andrew Bailey warned that inflation could approach 5% by mid 2027, suggesting further tightening remains possible. Meanwhile, stronger than expected US employment figures, with 165,000 jobs added in October, have increased expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase in December. Markets now turn towards Tuesday's US CPI release and Thursday's UK GDP figures, with the latter providing an important assessment of economic resilience following the recent Budget.

House View

Our house view is cautiously constructive, with sterling benefiting from the Bank of England's increasingly hawkish stance and improving technical momentum. However, stronger US economic data continues to support the dollar, making a sustained move beyond 1.3500 challenging. We favour further consolidation with a modest upside bias while 1.3300 holds, although a decisive breakout above 1.3500 would be needed to strengthen our conviction.

GBP/USD: NOVEMBER ‘25 - PRESENT

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8342, extending its pronounced bearish trend and reaching fresh lows following the breakdown below 0.8450. The pair remains comfortably beneath its declining 20 day moving average, with RSI around 26 signalling deeply oversold conditions. Despite evidence of short term consolidation near 0.8320 to 0.8340, the established pattern of lower highs and lower lows continues to favour further euro weakness.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A corrective recovery could see EUR/GBP reclaim 0.8380 before testing the previous support region around 0.8450. A sustained break above this area would improve the short term outlook and potentially encourage a recovery towards 0.8500.
• Bearish: Failure to recover above 0.8380 would maintain downward pressure, with 0.8320 and the lower Bollinger Band around 0.8300 providing the next potential targets. A decisive break beneath 0.8300 could expose the major support level around 0.8250.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The widening divergence between Bank of England and European Central Bank policy continues to favour sterling. The BoE's decision to raise rates to 4.00% contrasts with the ECB's decision to maintain its deposit rate at 2.50% in late October. Meanwhile, France's fiscal difficulties remain a significant concern for the eurozone, with French government borrowing costs remaining substantially above German equivalents. Persistent energy inflation is also complicating the ECB's outlook, placing pressure on growth while limiting policy flexibility. Thursday's UK GDP release will be particularly important in determining whether sterling can maintain its advantage.

House View

Our house view remains bearish, favouring further euro weakness against sterling while EUR/GBP remains below 0.8450. However, with RSI firmly in oversold territory and the pair approaching longer term support around 0.8300, the likelihood of a corrective rebound is increasing. We would view any recovery towards 0.8380 to 0.8450 as potentially temporary unless there is a meaningful shift in relative monetary policy expectations.

EUR/GBP: NOVEMBER ‘25 - PRESENT

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1189, continuing to consolidate near significant support following its prolonged decline from August highs around 1.1700. The pair remains below its 20 day moving average near 1.1200, while RSI around 44 suggests bearish momentum has moderated without indicating a convincing reversal. Recent price action reflects an attempt to establish a base between 1.1140 and 1.1260, although the broader downward trend remains intact.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A sustained recovery above 1.1200, followed by a breakout through 1.1260, could encourage further gains towards 1.1340 and potentially 1.1400. A move beyond this region would provide stronger evidence that the immediate bearish trend is beginning to reverse.
• Bearish: Failure to reclaim resistance around 1.1200 to 1.1260 could encourage renewed selling towards 1.1140. A decisive break below this support would expose 1.1100, followed by the psychological 1.1000 level if downward momentum accelerates.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The US dollar remains supported by stronger economic fundamentals following October's employment report, which showed 165,000 jobs added and unemployment declining to 4.1%. The Federal Reserve maintained rates at 3.75% to 4.00% in October, with markets increasingly anticipating further tightening in December. Tuesday's US CPI release will therefore be particularly important in determining the dollar's near term direction. Meanwhile, the ECB remains cautious following its October decision to hold rates at 2.50%, with elevated energy prices, weak eurozone growth prospects and continuing French fiscal concerns weighing on confidence in the single currency.

House View

Our house view remains cautiously bearish, although recent consolidation near 1.1150 suggests selling pressure may be temporarily easing. We favour continued dollar strength while EUR/USD trades below 1.1260, with a sustained break below 1.1140 potentially triggering another downward move. A recovery above 1.1340 would be required before adopting a more constructive outlook.

EUR/USD: NOVEMBER ‘25 - PRESENT

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is trading around 157.97, consolidating following its recovery from September lows near 153.50. The pair has recently struggled to establish a sustained breakout above 159.00, with price now fluctuating around its 20 day moving average near 157.90. RSI around 51 suggests relatively balanced momentum, reinforcing the impression of a market awaiting a clearer directional catalyst. The 156.90 to 159.00 range remains central to the immediate outlook.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A sustained break above 159.00 could encourage USD/JPY to challenge the psychological 160.00 level, followed by major resistance around 161.50 to 162.00. A decisive breakout beyond this region would strengthen the broader bullish outlook and potentially expose 164.00.
• Bearish: Failure to overcome resistance around 159.00 could trigger renewed selling towards 156.90. A decisive break beneath this support would weaken the recovery structure and expose 155.00, followed by the significant 153.50 region.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 1.25% following its October meeting, with policymakers continuing to assess the impact of higher energy costs and underlying inflationary pressures. Expectations of additional Japanese tightening remain relevant, although uncertainty around the timing of the next increase continues to influence the yen. Meanwhile, stronger US employment figures have increased market expectations of another Federal Reserve rate rise in December, supporting the dollar through interest rate differentials. Tuesday's US CPI report will be closely watched, while Japanese authorities remain sensitive to excessive yen weakness and disorderly currency movements.

House View

Our house view remains neutral with a modest bullish bias while USD/JPY holds above 156.90. Stronger US economic data could encourage another challenge of 159.00 to 160.00, although the possibility of further Bank of Japan tightening and Japanese currency intervention risks limit our conviction. We expect continued consolidation unless the pair establishes a decisive break outside its current trading range.

USD/JPY: NOVEMBER ‘25 - PRESENT

As always, if you’d like to discuss these moves in more detail, or how they could impact your business or personal requirements, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

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