Weekly FX Technical Analysis - 16th March 2026

FX markets enter March with several major currency pairs approaching key technical inflection points. GBP/USD continues to test support near the 1.33 region following its failed breakout above 1.38, while EUR/USD has slipped back toward the lower boundary of its broader range near 1.15.

EUR/GBP remains trapped within its multi-month consolidation band, and USD/JPY is once again pressing toward the psychologically important 160 level.

In this week’s update we highlight the key support and resistance levels shaping price action across the majors and outline the scenarios that could drive the next directional moves.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD remains under pressure following the failed breakout above the 1.38 region, with spot currently trading around 1.3313. The pair has slipped back below the former range highs near 1.3450 and is now testing the broader support structure that has underpinned price action since late 2025.

Momentum remains soft, with RSI drifting toward the high-30s, suggesting downside pressure remains present. The 1.3300 region now represents the key near-term pivot for the pair. A sustained hold above this area would suggest the broader consolidation remains intact, while a clean break lower could trigger a deeper retracement.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A recovery back above 1.3425–1.3450 would stabilise momentum and reopen the path toward 1.3590, followed by 1.3780 resistance.

• Bearish: A break below 1.3300 would expose 1.3200, with the next major support around 1.3000–1.3050.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

Sterling remains highly sensitive to shifts in US interest rate expectations. Continued volatility in US yields and global risk sentiment is likely to remain the dominant driver for GBP/USD in the near term.

GBP/USD: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP has softened and is currently trading around 0.8638, drifting back toward the lower boundary of its broader consolidation range. The cross has struggled to maintain upside momentum after repeated rejections near the 0.8750–0.8800 resistance zone.

Price action now sits close to trend support that has guided the broader recovery since mid-2025. Momentum indicators remain neutral to slightly bearish, suggesting the pair may continue to consolidate within its established range.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A move back above 0.8700–0.8750 would shift momentum higher and reopen the path toward 0.8850 resistance.

• Bearish: A sustained break below 0.8600 would signal a downside range break and expose 0.8500 as the next key support level.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

Relative interest rate expectations between the Bank of England and the European Central Bank remain the primary driver of EUR/GBP. Shifts in inflation expectations or economic momentum between the UK and Eurozone could quickly tilt the balance within this range.

EUR/GBP: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

EUR/USD

EUR/USD continues to weaken following the rejection from the 1.20 resistance zone, with spot currently trading around 1.1501. The pair has broken below the mid-range support around 1.17 and is now approaching the lower boundary of its broader consolidation structure.

Momentum indicators have deteriorated notably, with RSI approaching oversold territory, suggesting downside pressure remains dominant in the near term. The 1.1500 level now represents the key support area to watch.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A recovery back above 1.1680–1.1700 would neutralise the immediate bearish bias and reopen a move toward 1.1920 resistance.

• Bearish: A sustained break below 1.1500 would confirm a deeper corrective move and expose 1.1400–1.1450 as the next major support zone.

  
  

Macro Backdrop to Consider

EUR/USD remains closely tied to shifts in Fed versus ECB policy expectations. Any repricing of US inflation or growth expectations is likely to drive short-term volatility.

EUR/USD: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

USD/JPY

USD/JPY remains elevated and is once again testing the upper resistance band near 160, with spot currently trading around 159.21. The pair has rebounded strongly following the February pullback and continues to trade within the broader ascending trend channel.

Momentum remains firm, with RSI pushing back above 60, suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact. However, the 160 region represents a major psychological and technical resistance level.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A sustained break above 160.40 would likely trigger another leg higher toward 162.00.

• Bearish: A move back below 156.80 would suggest the rally is losing momentum and expose 153.30 as the next key support.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

USD/JPY continues to track US-Japan yield differentials closely. Any shifts in US Treasury yields or policy signals from the Bank of Japan could quickly generate volatility.

USD/JPY: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

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As always, if you’d like to discuss these moves in more detail, or how they could impact your business or personal requirements, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

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Disclaimer: The information in this publication is provided for general information purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice, nor should it be relied upon as such. Readers should consider their own circumstances and seek independent advice where appropriate.