Weekly FX Technical Analysis - 23rd March 2026

FX markets remain at key technical junctures, with several major currency pairs approaching important support and resistance levels.

GBP/USD is attempting to stabilise near 1.33 after its recent pullback, while EUR/USD continues to test the lower end of its range near 1.15. EUR/GBP remains range-bound but is now pressing against key support, and USD/JPY is once again challenging the 160 level.

This week’s charts highlight the critical levels that could dictate the next directional moves across the majors.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD continues to trade under pressure, currently holding just above the 1.3290–1.3300 support region after failing to sustain momentum above the 1.38 highs seen earlier this year. Price action has now rotated back into the broader consolidation range that has defined much of the past 12 months.

The pair is attempting to stabilise near trendline support, with Bollinger Bands beginning to compress, suggesting a potential volatility expansion ahead. RSI remains subdued in the low-40s, indicating that bearish momentum is still present, although not yet oversold.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A move back above 1.3385–1.3425 would suggest a recovery in momentum and reopen a move toward 1.3550, followed by 1.3780.

• Bearish: A break below 1.3300 would expose 1.3200, with a deeper move toward 1.3000 if downside momentum accelerates.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

GBP/USD remains driven by US rate expectations and broader dollar strength. Any repricing of Fed policy expectations is likely to remain the key catalyst.

GBP/USD: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP remains range-bound but has edged lower, currently trading around 0.8660, with price action testing the lower boundary of its multi-month consolidation structure.

The pair continues to respect the broader 0.8600–0.8800 range, with repeated failures near the upper resistance zone reinforcing this structure. Price is now sitting on a key ascending trendline support, making this a technically important inflection point.

Momentum remains neutral, with RSI hovering around mid-range levels, suggesting no strong directional bias at present.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A move back above 0.8700–0.8760 would shift momentum higher and reopen the path toward 0.8850.

• Bearish: A break below 0.8600 would signal a downside range break and expose 0.8500 support.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

Relative monetary policy expectations between the UK and Eurozone continue to dictate direction, with EUR/GBP likely to remain range-bound unless a clear divergence emerges.

EUR/GBP: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

EUR/USD

EUR/USD remains under sustained pressure following its rejection from the 1.20 resistance zone, with price now trading around 1.1510 and testing the lower end of its broader range.

The pair has broken below the mid-range support near 1.1600, with price now consolidating just above key structural support around 1.1500. Bollinger Bands remain expanded following the recent sell-off, indicating elevated volatility conditions.

RSI is holding near the low-40s, suggesting bearish momentum remains intact but not yet stretched.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A recovery above 1.1610–1.1680 would neutralise downside pressure and reopen a move toward 1.1830–1.1900.

• Bearish: A break below 1.1500 would confirm further downside, exposing 1.1400, followed by 1.1200 support.

  
  

Macro Backdrop to Consider

EUR/USD continues to track Fed vs ECB expectations closely, with US data and rate pricing remaining the dominant driver.

EUR/USD: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

USD/JPY

USD/JPY continues to push higher and is once again testing the upper resistance band near 160, currently trading around 159.50. The broader uptrend remains intact, supported by strong upward momentum and consistent higher lows.

Price is now approaching a key technical and psychological resistance zone, with previous attempts above 160 failing to sustain. Bollinger Bands remain elevated, reflecting continued directional strength.

RSI is pushing above 60, reinforcing the bullish momentum profile.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish: A sustained break above 160.50 would likely trigger further upside toward 162.00.

• Bearish: A move back below 158.00 would signal a loss of momentum and expose 155.50, followed by 153.30.

Macro Backdrop to Consider

Yield differentials remain the primary driver, with USD/JPY highly sensitive to US Treasury yields and any Bank of Japan policy signals.

USD/JPY: MARCH ‘25 - PRESENT

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As always, if you’d like to discuss these moves in more detail, or how they could impact your business or personal requirements, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

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Disclaimer: The information in this publication is provided for general information purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice, nor should it be relied upon as such. Readers should consider their own circumstances and seek independent advice where appropriate.